As Naomi Oreskes has noted: For instance, in “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?” in Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014).
Just running those models: Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015), pp. 53–55.
the Nobel laureate William Nordhaus: “If productivity growth is high, global temperature in 2100 is 5.3 °C.” William Nordhaus, “Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Area of Minimal Climate Policies” (working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016).
humans at the equator: Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber, “An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 21 (May 2010): pp. 9552–55, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913352107.
oceans would eventually swelclass="underline" Jason Treat et al., “What the World Would Look Like If All the Ice Melted,” National Geographic, September 2013.
two-thirds of the world’s major cities: This is a common shorthand climate scientists use, expressed by Katharine Hayhoe in Jonah Engel Bromwich, “Where Can You Escape the Harshest Effects of Climate Change?” The New York Times, October 20, 2016. “Two-thirds of the world’s biggest cities are within a few feet of sea level,” Hayhoe says.
hardly any land on the planet: If, as David Battisti and Rosamond Naylor theorize, every degree of warming costs 10 to 15 percent of grain yields—with higher temperatures cutting into productivity more than lower ones—eight degrees of global warming will almost entirely eliminate the capacity of the world’s existing grain regions to produce food.
tropical disease would reach northward: As Peter Brannen documents in Ends of the World, the last time the world was even five degrees warmer, what we now know as the Arctic was, in places, tropical.
climate is actually less sensitive: Peter M. Cox et al., “Emergent Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity from Global Temperature Variability,” Nature 553 (January 2018): pp. 319–22.
permanent food deficit: Mark Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (New York: HarperCollins, 2007). This book is a valuable road map to the future of warming.
“Half-Earth”: Edward O. Wilson, Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life (New York: W. W. Norton, 2016).
three major hurricanes: Those were Irma, Katia, and Jose.
“500,000-year event”: Tia Ghose, “Hurricane Harvey Caused 500,000-Year Floods in Some Areas,” Live Science, September 11, 2017, www.livescience.com/60378-hurricane-harvey-once-in-500000-year-flood.html.
third such flood: Christopher Ingraham, “Houston Is Experiencing Its Third ‘500-Year’ Flood in Three Years. How Is That Possible?” The Washington Post, August 29, 2017.
an Atlantic hurricane hit Ireland: Hurricane Ophelia, that is.
45 million were flooded: UNICEF, “16 Million Children Affected by Massive Flooding in South Asia, with Millions More at Risk,” September 2, 2017, www.unicef.org/press-releases/16-million-children-affected-massive-flooding-south-asia-millions-more-risk.
“thousand-year flood”: Tom Di Liberto, “Torrential Rains Bring Epic Flash Floods in Maryland in Late May 2018,” NOAA Climate.gov, May 31, 2018, www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/torrential-rains-bring-epic-flash-floods-maryland-late-may-2018.
record heat waves: Jason Samenow, “Red-Hot Planet: All-Time Heat Records Have Been Set All over the World During the Past Week,” The Washington Post, July 5, 2018.
fifty-four died from the heat: Rachel Lau, “Death Toll Rises to 54 as Quebec Heat Wave Ends,” Global News, July 6, 2018, https://globalnews.ca/news/4316878/50-people-now-dead-due-to-sweltering-quebec-heat-wave.
one hundred major wildfires: Jon Herskovitz, “More than 100 Large Wildfires in U.S. as New Blazes Erupt,” Reuters, August 11, 2018, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wildfires/more-than-100-large-wildfires-in-u-s-as-new-blazes-erupt-idUSKBN1KX00B.
4,000 acres in one day: “Holy Fire Burns 4,000 Acres, Forcing Evacuations in Orange County,” Fox 5 San Diego, August 6, 2018, https://fox5sandiego.com/2018/08/06/fast-moving-wildfire-forces-evacuations-in-orange-county/.
300-foot eruption of flames: Kirk Mitchell, “Spring Creek Fire ‘Tsunami’ Sweeps over Subdivision, Raising Home Toll to 251,” Denver Post, July 5, 2018.
1.2 million were evacuated: Elaine Lies, “Hundreds of Thousands Evacuated in Japan as ‘Historic Rain’ Falls; Two Dead,” Reuters, July 6, 2018, https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N1U21AH.
the evacuation of 2.45 million: “Two Killed, 2.45 Million Evacuated as Super Typhoon Mangkhut Hits Mainland China,” The Times of India, September 16, 2018, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/super-typhoon-mangkhut-hits-china-over-2-45-million-people-evacuated/articleshow/65830611.cms.
turning the port city of Wilmington: Patricia Sullivan and Katie Zezima, “Florence Has Made Wilmington, N.C., an Island Cut Off from the Rest of the World,” The Washington Post, September 16, 2018.
hog manure and coal ash: Umair Irfan, “Hog Manure Is Spilling Out of Lagoons Because of Hurricane Florence’s Floods,” Vox, September 21, 2018.
the winds of Florence: Joel Burgess, “Tornadoes in the Wake of Florence Twist Through North Carolina,” Asheville Citizen-Times, September 17, 2018.
Kerala was hit: Hydrology Directorate, Government of India, Study Report: Kerala Floods of August 2018 (September 2018), http://cwc.gov.in/main/downloads/KeralaFloodReport/Rev-0.pdf.
Hawaii’s East Island: Josh Hafner, “Remote Hawaiian Island Vanishes Underwater After Hurricane,” USA Today, October 24, 2018.
deadliest fire in its history: Paige St. John et al., “California Fire: What Started as a Tiny Brush Fire Became the State’s Deadliest Wildfire. Here’s How,” Los Angeles Times, November 18, 2018.
Jerry Brown described: Ruben Vives, Melissa Etehad, and Jaclyn Cosgrove, “Southern California Fire Devastation Is ‘the New Normal,’ Gov. Brown Says,” Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2017.
“angry beast”: “Wallace Broecker: How to Calm an Angry Beast,” CBC News, November 19, 2008, www.cbc.ca/news/technology/wallace-broecker-how-to-calm-an-angry-beast-1.714719.
the fourth evacuation order: County of Santa Barbara, California, evacuation orders from 2018.
temporary shacks: Michael Schwirtz, “Besieged Rohingya Face ‘Crisis Within the Crisis’: Deadly Floods,” The New York Times, February 13, 2018.
More than a dozen died: Phil Helsel, “Body of Mother Found After California Mudslide; Death Toll Rises to 21,” NBC News, January 20, 2018, www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/body-mother-found-after-california-mudslide-death-toll-rises-21-n839546.
1.8 trillion tons of carbon: NASA Science, “Is Arctic Permafrost the ‘Sleeping Giant’ of Climate Change?” NASA, June 24, 2013, https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/24jun_permafrost.