never before observed in human history: Richard Zeebe et al., “Anthropogenic Carbon Release Rate Unprecedented During the Past 66 Million Years,” Nature Geoscience 9 (March 2016): pp. 325–29, https://doi.org//10.1038/ngeo2681.
“damage mechanics”: C. P. Borstad et al., “A Damage Mechanics Assessment of the Larsen B Ice Shelf Prior to Collapse: Toward a Physically-Based Calving Law,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (September 2012), https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053317.
around ten times faster: Sarah Griffiths, “Global Warming Is Happening ‘Ten Times Faster than at Any Time in the Earth’s History,’ Climate Experts Claim,” The Daily Mail, August 2, 2013. See also Melissa Davey, “Humans Causing Climate to Change 170 Times Faster than Natural Forces,” The Guardian, February 12, 2017; this estimate for a rate of warming 170 times faster came from Owen Gaffney and Will Steffen, “The Anthropocene Equation,” The Anthropocene Review, February 10, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019616688022.
the average American emits: Dirk Notz and Julienne Stroeve, “Observed Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Directly Follows Anthropogenic CO2 Emission,” Science, November 3, 2016. See also Robinson Meyer, “The Average American Melts 645 Square Feet of Arctic Ice Every Year,” The Atlantic, November 3, 2016. And see also Ken Caldeira, “How Much Ice Is Melted by Each Carbon Dioxide Emission?” March 24, 2018, https://kencaldeira.wordpress.com/2018/03/24/how-much-ice-is-melted-by-each-carbon-dioxide-emission.
1.2 degrees of global warming: Sebastian H. Mernild, “Is ‘Tipping Point’ for the Greenland Ice Sheet Approaching?” Aktuel Naturvidenskab, 2009, http://mernild.com/onewebmedia/2009.AN%20Mernild4.pdf.
raise sea levels six meters: National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Quick Facts on Ice Sheets,” https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html.
West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets: Patrick Lynch, “The ‘Unstable’ West Antarctic Ice Sheet: A Primer,” NASA, May 12, 2014, www.nasa.gov/jpl/news/antarctic-ice-sheet-20140512.
a billion tons of ice: UMassAmherst College of Engineering, “Gleason Participates in Groundbreaking Greenland Research That Makes Front Page of New York Times,” January 2017, https://engineering.umass.edu/news/gleason-participates-groundbreaking-greenland-research-that-makes-front-page-new-york-times.
raise global sea levels ten to twenty feet: Jonathan L. Bamber, “Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” Science 324, no. 5929 (May 2009): pp. 901–3, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1169335.
eighteen billion tons of ice: Alejandra Borunda, “We Know West Antarctica Is Melting. Is the East in Danger, Too?” National Geographic, August 10, 2018.
permafrost contains up to 1.8 trillion: NASA Science, “Is Arctic Permafrost the ‘Sleeping Giant’ of Climate Change?” June 24, 2013, https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/24jun_permafrost.
one Nature paper found that: Katey Walter Anthony et al., “21st-Century Modeled Permafrost Carbon Emissions Accelerated by Abrupt Thaw Beneath Lakes,” Nature Communications 9, no. 3262 (August 2018), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9. See also Ellen Gray, “Unexpected Future Boost of Methane Possible from Arctic Permafrost,” NASA Climate, August 20, 2018, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost.
“abrupt thawing”: Anthony, “21st-Century Modeled Permafrost Carbon Emissions,” https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9.
Atmospheric methane levels have risen: “What Is Behind Rising Levels of Methane in the Atmosphere?” NASA Earth Observatory, January 11, 2018, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91564/what-is-behind-rising-levels-of-methane-in-the-atmosphere.
Arctic lakes could possibly double: Anthony, “21st-Century Modeled Permafrost Carbon Emissions,” https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9.
between 37 and 81 percent by 2100: IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers (Geneva, October 2013), p. 23, www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.
as quickly as the 2020s: Kevin Schaeffer et al., “Amount and Timing of Permafrost Release in Response to Climate Warming,” Tellus B, January 24, 2011.
a hundred billion tons: Ibid.
a massive warming equivalent: Peter Wadhams, “The Global Impacts of Rapidly Disappearing Arctic Sea Ice,” Yale Environment 360, September 26, 2016, https://e360.yale.edu/features/as_arctic_ocean_ice_disappears_global_climate_impacts_intensify_wadhams.
at least fifty meters: David Archer, The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016).
The U.S. Geological Survey: Jason Treat et al., “What the World Would Look Like If All the Ice Melted,” National Geographic, September 2013.
more than 97 percent of Florida: Benjamin Strauss, Scott Kulp, and Peter Clark, “Can You Guess What America Will Look Like in 10,000 Years? A Quiz,” The New York Times, April 20, 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/20/sunday-review/climate-flood-quiz.html.
Manaus, the capitaclass="underline" Treat, “What the World Would Look Like.”
More than 600 million: Gordon McGranahan et al., “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones,” Environment and Urbanization 19, no. 1 (April 2007): pp. 17–27, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0956247807076960.
Wildfire
Thomas Fire, the worst: CalFire, “Incident Information: Thomas Fire,” March 28, 2018, http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1922.
“15% contained”: CalFire, “Thomas Fire Incident Update,” December 11, 2017, http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/pub/cdf/images/incidentfile1922_3183.pdf.
“Los Angeles Notebook”: Joan Didion, Slouching Towards Bethlehem (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1968).
Five of the twenty worst fires: CalFire, “Top 20 Most Destructive California Wildfires,” August 20, 2018, www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Destruction.pdf.
1,240,000 acres: CalFire, “Incident Information: 2017,” January 24, 2018, http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_stats?year=2017.
172 fires broke out: California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection, “October 2017 Fire Siege,” January 2018, http://bofdata.fire.ca.gov/board_business/binder_materials/2018/january_2018_meeting/full/full_14_presentation_october_2017_fire_siege.pdf.
One couple survived: Robin Abcarian, “They Survived Six Hours in a Pool as a Wildfire Burned Their Neighborhood to the Ground,” Los Angeles Times, October 12, 2017.
only the husband who emerged: Erin Allday, “Wine Country Wildfires: Huddled in Pool amid Blaze, Wife Dies in Husband’s Arms,” SF Gate, January 25, 2018.