275 Ellsberg lectures: First delivered Mar. 1959 and broadcast over WGBH-FM radio, Boston; later published by RAND, Ellsberg, The Theory and Practice of Blackmail, P-3883, July 1968.
276 “interference”: See memo, Clarence Irvine to Gen. White, “Interaction of Air Operations in Time of Emergency,” Feb. 5, 1959, Thomas White Papers, Box 25, Air Force Council, Tab AFC 8/1; and interviews.*
277 “A general war”: Cited in memo, U. S. G. Sharp to Secretary, JCS, on changes in CINCEUR Plan 100–1 through 100–4, Aug. 21, 1958, CCS 381 (11–15-48), Sec. 19, NA/MMB.
277 “as principal”: Ibid; and interviews.
278 “while limiting”: Quotes from the final draft, which was Central War section of McNamara guidance for JCS strategic war planning, signed by McNamara, May 1961 (provided to author).
279 Enthoven/Trinkl orders: Desmond Ball, Politics and Force Levels: The Strategic Missile Program of the Kennedy Administration (Berkeley: Univ. of California Press, 1980), p. 191; and interviews.
281 $840 million: Ibid., p. 194.
281 number of DPMs: Alain Enthoven and K. Wayne Smith, How Much Is Enough? (New York: Harper & Row, 1971), p. 54.
281 “They’re a far”: Quoted in ibid., p. 58.
281 “greater survival”: DPM, McNamara to Kennedy, op. cit., p. 12.*
281 “ideal for”: Ibid., p. 14.*
281 “the extremes of”: Ibid., pp. 4–5.*
281 “The forces I am”: Ibid., p. 4.*
282 shorter budget memo: Memo, McNamara to Kennedy, “Recommended DoD FY ‘63 and 1963–67 Program,” Oct. 6, 1961, Presidential Office Files, Box 77, Defense, 9–12/61, JFKL.
282 aides oppose: See Memo, David Bell to Kennedy, “FY 1963 Defense Budget Issues,” Nov. 13, 1961; Memos, Carl Kaysen to Kennedy, Nov. 22 and Dec. 9, 1961; both in National Security File, Box 275, DoD Defense Budget, FY63, 11–12/61, JFKL; and interviews.
282 “Bob McNamara is”: Cited in Trewhitt, op. cit., p. 83.
282 Fryklund leak: Richard Fryklund, “New A-War Plan Would Spare Cities,” Washington Star, Dec. 17, 1961; and interview.
282 “major mission”: McNamara, testimony, Hearings, House Appropriations Committee, DoD Appropriations for 1963, Pt. 2, pp. 13, 249–50.
282 “be used in several”: Cited in William W. Kaufmann, The McNamara Strategy (New York: Harper & Row, 1964), p. 74. Kaufmann’s book is most interesting, in that he pretends to be simply an MIT professor attempting to explain McNamara’s strategy “in his own words wherever possible” since “McNamara is well able to speak for himself.” (p. x.) Little does the reader know that Professor Kaufmann played a major role in devising the strategy and wrote several of the speeches that he quotes.
284 “the U.S. has come”: “Remarks by Secretary McNamara, NATO Ministerial Meeting, 5 May 1962, Restricted Session,” p. 2–3. (Thanks to David N. Schwartz, who obtained this document through FOIA/DoD and provided me with a copy.)
284 “intolerable to have”: Ibid., p. 11.
284 “repeat to the point”: Handwritten notes from memo, McGeorge Bundy, on JFK’s opinion of Athens speech (provided to author).
285 enthralled: Kaufmann, op. cit., p. 114.
19: THE GAP THAT NEVER WAS
286 August 10: John Prados, The Soviet Estimate (New York: Dial Press, 1982), p. 109; reports of missiles at Plesetsk, p. 97; and interviews.
287 “The ‘bomber gap’:” Public Papers of the Presidents, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1960–61 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1961), p. 919.
287 June NIE: Memo, Lawrence McQuade to Paul Nitze, “But Where Did the Missile Gap Go?,” p. 14, National Security File, Box 298, Missile Gap, Feb.–May 1963, JFKL.
288 “no more than”: Ibid., p. 14n.
289 “believe that our”: CIA, “Current Status of Soviet and Satellite Military Forces and Indications of Military Intentions,” Sept. 6, 1961, pp. 4–5, Presidential Office File, Box 117, Germany-Security, 8–12/61 folder, JFKL.
289 four SS-6, twenty SS-7/8 under construction: McQuade’s memo to Nitze (op. cit., p. 15) reports that the Sept. NIE cites “10–25” ICBMs. According to several interviewed, the “Codeword-classified” Annex of the NIE reported four SS-6 ICBMs, with the remainder of the “10–25” being SS-7s and SS-8s not yet deployed but whose sites were under construction.
20: THE CRISES
291 “test of”: Theodore Sorensen, Kennedy (New York: Harper & Row, 1965), p. 657.
291 Berlin background: Material on general history mostly taken from Robert M. Slusser, “The Berlin Crises of 1958–59 and 1961,” in Barry M. Blechman and Stephen S. Kaplan, Force Without War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1978); and Slusser, The Berlin Crisis of 1961 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 1973).
292 “peaceful coexistence”: Quoted in Slusser, “The Berlin Crises of 1958–59 and 1961,” p. 396.
293 “read, mark”: Stewart Alsop, “Kennedy’s Grand Strategy,” Saturday Evening Post, Mar. 31, 1962, p. 12.
293 read at NSC: Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., A Thousand Days (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1965), pp. 302–03.
293 “cold winter”: Schlesinger, op. cit., p. 348.
293 Acheson memo: Ibid., pp. 354–56.
294 Acheson critics: Ibid., pp. 356–60; memo, Lucius Battle to McGeorge Bundy, National Security File, Box 81, Germany-Berlin-General, 6/30/61, JFKL.
294 “to neutralize”: Schlesinger, op. cit., p. 353.
296 McNamara and JCS plans: Ibid., p. 361; and interviews.
296 NSC June 14: Memo, L. L. Lemnitzer to Kennedy, “Supply Levels in Berlin,” June 14, 1961, National Security File, Box 81, Germany-Berlin-General, 6/17-6/22/61, JFKL.
296 Acheson memo circulated: Memo, C. E. Johnson to Bromley Smith, “Distribution of Mr. Acheson’s Memorandum on Berlin,” June 29, 1961, National Security File, Box 81, Germany-Berlin-General, 6/29-6/31/61, JFKL.
296 “It is clear”: Memo, Carl Kaysen to McGeorge Bundy, July 3, 1961, National Security File, Box 81, Germany-Berlin-General, 7/1-7/6/61, JFKL.
297 “all agree”: Bundy, Covering Note on Henry Kissinger’s Memo on Berlin, July 7, 1961, National Security File, Box 381, Germany-Berlin-General-Kissinger Report, 7/7/61, JFKL.
297 mobilize million men: Memo, McGeorge Bundy to McNamara, July 10, 1961, National Security File, Box 81, Germany-Berlin-General, 7/13/61, JFKL.
297 July 25 speech: Text in National Security File, Box 82, Germany-Berlin-General, 7/23-7/26/61, JFKL.
298 resolve and time for second thoughts: Schlesinger, op. cit., p. 361.
298 “hinges on”: Quoted in ibid., pp. 360–61.
298 “nuclear war”: Bundy, handwritten notes, “JFK’s Berlin Agenda,” National Security File, Box 81, Germany-Berlin-General, 7/19-7/22/61, JFKL.
298 “With the”: Memo, Kennedy to McNamara, Aug. 14, 1961, National Security File, Box 82, Germany-Berlin-General, 8/11-8/15/61, JFKL.
299 Raskin on study: Marcus G. Raskin, Being and Doing (New York: Random House, 1971), pp. 62–63; and interviews. Raskin’s is the only book or article, to my knowledge, that even mentions the existence of the first-strike study, and it does so only briefly. The material here comes from interviews with nine participants and close observers.