“Meanwhile, you’re keeping your women safe? Warning them to stay in pairs, and so forth?”
He was about to say “of course, as much as I can,” but a lieutenant wearing a gold aiguillette stepped in. The “Flag Loop,” as the aide was called, lifted his voice. “Attention on deck.”
“Please carry on, gentlemen, ladies,” Tim Simko said. Short, dark-haired, round-headed, the commander, Strike Group One, looked amazingly unchanged from when Dan had played lacrosse with him at Annapolis. Yeah, the Naval Academy, when they’d dreamed of battle and glory. Now he hoped they could avoid it. Only fools dreamed of war, and only the ignorant thought it glorious. But he wasn’t sure if that meant he’d grown wiser, or if he’d just seen too much. “Everyone got coffee? If you’ll take seats, we’ll get started.”
Dan found a chair next to Roald. The admiral remained standing in front of a large-screen display. The aide handed him a clicker and dimmed the lights as the Strike One logo popped.
Simko said, “This will be a short brief, as I know you all want to get back to your units. Which is also where I want you. Thanks for coming, and greetings especially to our sub commanders, who are attending via teleconference.” He nodded to a camera on a tripod. “I’ll kick off, then turn it over to the chief of staff and my N-heads for the details.
“Just got off the line with Fleet, to make sure I was clear on the commander’s guidance and how things are developing in the AOR. So what you’ll hear today is up-to-the-minute.”
Click. A map of Southwest Asia. “The nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India has stopped the invasion, but the Pakistani army has been forced back past the Indus. China has issued an ultimatum to India, to halt in place or face consequences. They’ve taken Bhutan, and are massing more forces at the northern border now. So India’s facing a two-front war, maybe even three; Myanmar has asked Indian diplomats to leave. New Delhi’s asking for our support. So far, we’re trying to get both sides to the conference table, but our clout with the Pakistanis is less than it used to be.”
Another image: the Indian Ocean. “Chinese, Pakistani, Iranian, Nigerian, and Burmese — what I’ve heard called the ‘Axis’ powers, though I don’t know if that’s going to stick — merchant traffic through the IO has basically stopped; any vessel under way has been taken into custody. Beijing’s assets currently in theater are limited, two subs and the Wuhan surface action group, but it’s possible we could meet their forces surging west through Malacca while we head east. Which could turn into a meeting engagement.
“Incidentally, we already detected those two submarines, Song-class, passing to the south of us. USS Montpelier trailed them while we kicked the decision upstairs, whether to attack or not. Orders came back down to let them go, but continue tracking. The Indian navy’s been notified of their positions, courses, and speeds, using a back channel into their submarine command.”
A new slide. “As you’ve guessed, Strike One’s headed for the South China Sea. China’s moved air and naval forces to the Paracel Islands, breaking a formal agreement with Vietnam. We may head north toward the coast; depends on how things play out. If cooler heads prevail — and I hope they will — we’ll turn around and head back to our previous stations. If not — well, then we’ll see.”
In rapid succession, now, other images flicked up. “The Japanese are protesting a Chinese landing in the Senkaku Islands, and are asking for backup. North Korea has seized the Kaesong Joint Industrial Zone, which it’s offering to China. That would give them a major air and naval base just north of the DMZ, and seriously threaten allied ability to operate in the Yellow Sea. ROK forces are going to full alert. There are also diplomatic indications the Chinese are trying to set up other forward airfields in Timor and Brunei. Plug in long-range maritime patrol, some fighter/attack, and they could control a lot of airspace. Even if they just “persuade” some of those smaller countries to deny overflight, that increases our problem set significantly.”
Simko clicked again, and the Strike One logo returned to the screen. “So we see chess pieces starting to move. And a lot’s probably going on in the sub world even I don’t know about… spooling up, moving C3 assets forward, ponying up assets from Italy and Germany and South Africa to take over as we rebalance from the Gulf and the Med.”
He looked at the overhead. “Finally, we can’t talk about a major conflict without addressing Taiwan. If the fat goes in the fire, the mainlanders will ramp up to get that settled once and for all. Carrier access denial in the strait would affect our operations tremendously. Meaning a lot of our surface and potentially subsurface assets not being able to break out of Yokosuka or Guam.”
He beckoned to a four-striper who Dan assumed was the chief of staff. “However, it’s important to remember: we’re not yet at war. Right now, we’re just redeploying to support our allies. I don’t want to get into internal politics, but the wounding of General Zhang in Mumbai has brought the hawks in Beijing out in force. China has been beating the drums about being isolated and surrounded for years. They may see this as the opportunity to break out.
“More immediately: as we move east, our major choke point will be the Malacca Strait.” A new image came up, zoomed in, and Dan recognized the narrowing northwest-to-southeast slant. “South of Kuala Lumpur, three hundred miles of narrow passage, ending at a melee of islands and the Singapore Strait. I won’t kid you, we’re vulnerable in close quarters.” Simko searched faces, found Dan’s. “But not helpless. As Captain Lenson showed us recently in the Strait of Hormuz. Dan, good to see you again.”
“Good to see you too, Admiral.”
“As most of you know, Captain Lenson commands USS Savo Island, the first of our TBMD shooters. If this mess goes hot, he’ll be our umbrella. Dan, stick around after this breaks up. Got some things I’d like to go over with you.” Simko turned away without waiting for an answer, and beckoned the four-striper up.
His first slide read: POLITICAL ALIGNMENTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. “All right… negotiations are ongoing, as you might imagine. Right here, right now, is where we find out who our friends are.
“Burma — Myanmar — is firmly in the Chinese camp. So far, we have commitments to provide facilities and protect our passage from Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. Also, interestingly, an offer of refueling and logistics from Vietnam.
“As to Singapore. As many of you know, we’ve had a repair and logistics agreement there since ’92, in Sembawang. But they have a large Chinese population and a lot of investment. The mainland’s their largest source of imports, especially food. So far, indications are we’ll probably get unmolested passage, but no fuel or other services. They might give us back-channel I and W and contact reports. I’ve got the naval attaché working it… but right now, they’re trying to play both sides. Can’t really blame them, given the pol/mil geometry.
“The Europeans sound like they’re going to stand clear too. Especially since the Russians are making trouble again over gas deliveries and eastern Ukraine.” The captain looked at the slide. “We may get lip service from the Brits, but that’s all. New Zealand’s announced its neutrality. On the other hand, the Australians are with us, though it means they’ll lose a lot of their raw-materials exports. We had to promise to buy their whole production for the next three months.”
Dan shivered. Why did this still feel so much like 1914? The fire wasn’t burning out. If anything, it was spreading. The nations were separating into opposing camps, and not always on the side they’d seemed to favor in prewar calculations. Each with its own ambitions and humiliations, throwing them onto the growing bonfire.