July opened with a motion in the House of Commons declaring lack of confidence in the Prime Minister's direction of the war. The vast majority of the people rejoiced when it was defeated by 475 votes to 25; but the fate of the Nile Valley and our whole position in the Middle East still hung in the balance.
In July, too, the situation on the Russian front began to give cause for grave anxiety. During the winter months, owing to lack of suitable clothes and equipment, the German armies had suffered appallingly. But once the thaw was sufficiently advanced to permit rapid movement they had renewed their efforts to achieve a decisive victory. Colossal battles had raged for weeks in the Kharkov and Kursk sectors, in which Marshal Timoshenko had managed to hold his own; but the Germans had launched another all-out offensive farther south. Regardless of losses, they had stormed the Kerch peninsula and battered their way into Sevastopol. By mid July they had broken through on a six hundred mile wide front, reached Rostov, crossed the Lower Don and now threatened both Stalingrad and the Caucasus.
Such was the situation on the night of Sunday, July 26th; and as was the case on most Sundays, after a cold supper together, Gregory and Sir Pellinore were up in the big library giving free rein to their hopes and fears. For an hour or more their talk roved over the battle fronts, then Gregory summed up.
'So there we are; Alexander hanging on by the skin of his teeth along the Indian frontier, the Auk hanging on by the skin of his outside Cairo, and the Ruskies being chivvied a hundred miles a day towards their oil wells without which they would have to chuck their hand in. It may be silly, but for the first time since the war started I'm beginning to lie awake at nights and wonder if we may not lose it.'
'What's that!' boomed Sir Pellinore, suddenly sitting bolt upright. 'Don't talk nonsense, boy! This is not like you. I can tell what's wrong though. It's having your nose so close to a lot of small maps all the time that's got you down. As Wellington said, "Always use the big ones".'
'There is no comfort to be got from doing that in this case. If the armies of Alex and the Auk both crack, within three months the Germans and the Japs will join up in Persia. Then we would about have had it.'
'I'd give long odds against the Axis pulling off a double. Besides, we wouldn't be sitting on our bottoms while the Nazis overran the whole Middle East.'
'It doesn't seem to me that there's much we could do to stop them.'
'We could launch a new campaign nearer home. That would force 'em to commit all the troops they had to spare.'
The decision taken only the night before, to do Operation Torch and occupy French North Africa, was still known only to a very limited number of people, and not even a rumour of it had yet reached the War Room; so Gregory shook his head and replied pessimistically:
'Everyone agrees that it is out of the question for us to open up a Second Front in 1942.'
'We might, and probably should, if driven to it by such an emergency. You are ignoring the brighter side, too, my boy. Think of the hell we have been knockin' out of Germany.'
'Oh, the R.A.F. is magnificent, I know. That 1,000 bomber raid on Cologne at the end of May, and the others since Lubeck, Hamburg, Essen, Bremen. Not to mention the Desert Air Force. If it hadn't been for those lads Rommel would already be in Cairo.'
'United States Air Force is showin' well too now. Fine feat their bombing of Tokyo; and every week more of their heavies are being flown here to increase the weight of bombs we can put down on the wursteaters.'
'That's all very well; but as we've seen both in Burma and the Desert, a determined air force can delay, but cannot halt, a victorious army. Even if it is possible to bomb Germany into submission that would take years; and, in the meantime, the German and Jap armies may have conquered half the world.'
Sir Pellinore made a gesture of protest. 'It's true that we've struck a bad patch; but whatever may happen in the next few months, 1943 will see us on top again. Once the great new American armies are fully equipped and begin to roll forward the housepainter will find that he's bitten off more than he can chew.'
'Not necessarily. Not if the Russians are forced to give in before an Allied army is able to come to their rescue.'
'Why should they? You went to Russia yourself. Like the wizard you are, you got the low-down from Marshal Voroshilov. He told you that their plan was to use their masses to make the Germans exhaust themselves, and that they were holding their best troops until the time came for them to go over to the offensive or in the last event if Stalingrad was threatened.'
That was ten months ago and their losses since have been immense. Stalingrad is only vital to them because, if they lost it, they could no longer get the oil from the Caucasus up the Volga to their central and northern fronts. But now the Caucasus itself is threatened; so they may already have had to throw in the crack Reserve Army that the Marshal told me about.'
'I see. Yes. You fear that there may be no stopping this great break through in the south. Of course, you're right about the oil wells. If they lose those their goose will be cooked.'
'And so will ours. Hitler now wields a whip over a dozen nations. He has coerced millions of men into both working and fighting for him. If the Soviets collapse he will be able to bring 180 divisions back into Western Europe. All hope of opening a Second Front would be gone for good then. For the Allies to attempt a landing on the Continent in the face of even half that number, in addition to the forces he has there already, would be plain suicide. We could only sit and watch him just as we are doing now while he sent forty or fifty divisions crashing down through Turkey and Persia into India.'
'Damn it, Gregory! You're giving even me the willies. Mind, I don't believe it will happen. But one must admit that it's just possible.'
'It could easily happen if we do nothing but twiddle our thumbs for the rest of the year. Just now you told me to use large maps, and I am using them. The armies of Alex, the Auk, and the Soviet army defending the Caucasus may be thousands of miles apart, but strategically all three are fighting back to back. The collapse of either of the first two would be a major calamity and prolong the war for years; if the Russians collapse, then I see no end to it.'
Sir Pellinore held out his glass. 'For God's sake give me a drink. Some of the high-ups who bring me their troubles have been pretty pessimistic lately; but none of them has painted as black a picture as this.'
Gregory poured them both another ration of old brandy, and remarked:
'That's probably because they are all worried stiff with their personal responsibilities; whereas I'm only a looker-on. And lookers-on get the best view of the game.'
'Well, what would you have us do?'
'Don't ask me; I'm not a planner. I only stick pins in maps.'
'Exactly. And it's that which has given you the time to do a bit of thinkin'. Come on now. What's the remedy?'
'There is only the obvious one. It is to stop burying our heads in the sand. You could at least try prodding your high-up friends into facing the situation and deciding on some definite action.'
'What sort of action?'
'Anything which would take a bit of weight off the Russians. Keeping them in the war is the thing that matters above all else; and, apart from sending them arms, we are doing nothing. Absolutely nothing! We are just calmly waiting for 1943. By then it may be too late, whereas some audacious move now could be the premium which would insure us against an eventual stalemate, or something far worse.'