Although all parties at Geneva agreed to work to defuse the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russia commenced military maneuvers on its side of the border, and pro-Russian militants expanded their zone of control, seizing additional government buildings and establishing armed checkpoints. In late April Volodymyr Rybak, a Horlivka city council representative and a member of Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party, was kidnapped and killed by a pro-Russian militia. Subsequently, dozens would be abducted and held by pro-Russian forces, including eight members of an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission, numerous Ukrainian and Western journalists, and several members of Ukrainian police and security services. The U.S. and the EU unveiled a fresh round of sanctions against Russia, and Kharkiv mayor Gennady Kernes, a member of Yanukovych’s Party of Regions who had reversed his pro-Moscow course and declared his support for a united Ukraine, was seriously wounded by a sniper. On May 2 the Ukrainian government restarted its offensive against pro-Russian forces in Slov’yansk. Although two helicopters were lost to hostile fire, Turchynov reported that many separatists had been killed or arrested. That same day, violence erupted in Odessa, a city that had been relatively unscathed until that point, and dozens of pro-Russian demonstrators were killed when the building they occupied caught fire.
On May 9 Putin celebrated Victory Day, a holiday that commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, with a trip to Crimea and a review of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Days before Putin’s visit, the Council for Civil Society and Human Rights, a Kremlin advisory body, had released a cautionary report about Crimea that sharply contradicted the officially published results of the March 16 independence referendum. Actual voter turnout was estimated to have been between 30 and 50 percent, with just over half of those casting ballots choosing annexation by Russia. As self-declared separatist governments in Luhansk and Donetsk prepared to stage their own referenda on independence, Ukrainian security forces continued to contest territory with pro-Russian militias, and a particularly bloody clash in Mariupol left as many as 20 dead. Those referenda, held in separatist-controlled cities on May 11, were dismissed by Kiev as “a farce” and were widely criticized throughout the West. Widespread irregularities were observed: masked gunmen directly supervised polls, voters casting multiple ballots were commonplace, and Ukrainian police reportedly seized 100,000 pre-completed “yes” ballots from armed separatists outside Slov’yansk. While stopping short of recognizing the results of the referenda, which overwhelmingly favoured independence, Putin said that he respected the will of the voters, even as the Kremlin called for negotiations. The EU responded by expanding its sanctions against Russian individuals and companies.
The Poroshenko administration
Skirmishes between separatist militias and government forces continued in the east, while the remainder of the country prepared for presidential elections on May 25. Although voting was seriously disrupted in Luhansk and Donetsk, with pro-Russian gunmen occupying polling stations and seizing ballot boxes, turnout elsewhere in the country was strong. Ukrainian billionaire Petro Poroshenko won in a landslide, easily topping the 50 percent mark necessary to secure a victory in the first round of polling. Tymoshenko finished a distant second, with 13 percent of the vote, while candidates from the ultranationalist Svoboda and Right Sector parties received barely 1 percent. In the days following the election, intense fighting resumed in eastern Ukraine. Dozens of pro-Russian separatists were killed in a battle over Donetsk’s international airport, and a Ukrainian military helicopter was shot down outside Slov’yansk, killing all 14 people aboard.
Poroshenko was sworn in as president on June 7, and he immediately set forth a proposal to restore peace in separatist-controlled regions. Fighting continued, however, and Russia was again accused of directly supporting the rebels when a trio of unidentified Soviet-era tanks appeared in Ukrainian towns near the Russian border. On June 14, one day after government forces reclaimed the city of Mariupol, the Ukrainian army suffered its largest single-day loss of life to that point, when rebels shot down a transport plane carrying 49 people as it attempted to land in Luhansk. Poroshenko called a halt to military operations in the east, offering a temporary truce, as well as amnesty to separatists who were willing to lay down their arms. He dispatched former president Kuchma to negotiate with rebel leaders, and they indicated their acceptance of the proposed cease-fire. Putin, citing a desire to help normalize the situation in eastern Ukraine, rescinded an order—issued before the annexation of Crimea—that authorized the use of Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. On June 27, amid strenuous Russian objections, Poroshenko signed the long-delayed association agreement with the EU, pledging closer ties with Europe.
In the following weeks the Ukrainian military recaptured the cities of Slov’yansk and Kramatorsk, which suggested that government forces were making significant headway against the rebels. Separatist militias began to deploy increasingly sophisticated weapons systems, however, and at least 19 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and scores were wounded during one attack in eastern Ukraine when their position was hit by a rocket artillery barrage. As the Ukrainian military became more assertive with its use of attack aircraft, pro-Russian forces intensified their air-defense campaign. On July 14 a Ukrainian transport plane was shot down at an altitude of more than 20,000 feet (6,100 metres), a range far beyond the capabilities of the portable air-defense systems that separatists had used previously. On July 16 a Ukrainian fighter jet was shot down over the Donetsk region, about 12 miles (20 km) from the Russian border. Ukrainian officials blamed both attacks on the Russian military, whom they alleged were taking an active role in the fighting.
Strelkov, IgorPro-Russian separatist leader Igor Girkin (byname Igor Strelkov) holding a media briefing on July 28, 2014, in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, Ukraine.Dmitry Lovetsky/AP Images
Malayasia Airlines flight 17Emergency workers examining the charred debris at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight 17, near the village of Hrabove, eastern Ukraine, July 20, 2014. Vadim Ghirda/AP/Shutterstock.com
The conflict’s civilian death toll jumped dramatically on July 17, when a Malaysia Airlines 777 carrying 298 people crashed in the Donetsk region. Both Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces were quick to deny responsibility for any role in the downing of the jet, which U.S. intelligence analysts confirmed was brought down by a surface-to-air missile. Investigators and recovery workers found their efforts hampered by the pro-Russian forces who controlled the crash site, and days passed before the majority of the bodies could be collected.