“Alright, look at it this way. We’ll make it easy. Every general has their favorite strategy, right?”
“I suppose so.”
“What if you didn’t know who a general was because his identity was classified, but you could more-or-less predict his identity based on the strategies he has historically employed? Even if you never fully confirmed who he was, if you dangled the right lure and he consistently took the bait, then you could make an educated guess as to how the rest of the game would go, provided your opponent continued to be who he was suspected to be.”
“So knowing your enemies’ motivations?” Matt asked.
“Exactly. Now, once again, the individual’s motivations can seem quite random—at least day-to-day with seemingly mundane activities. If a boy sees a pretty girl, he may or may not ask her out based on how intimidated he is by her. Or if a girl is trying out a new diet, she may decide to stick with it, or be tempted by the thing she is being deprived of, right?
“But we aren’t just talking about disparate individuals. We are talking about tactically-inclined and regimented demographics; specifically, the demographic of HVA agents who tend to over-rely on certain tactics—blackmail, for instance. They rely on these tactics because they have a very specific worldview that lends to a certain paranoia and distrust, even towards themselves. So, if you have an unknown case officer that tends to lead these HVA agents down certain paths—even if individuals in this agent-pool act against his wishes—if you know for certain that these agents are, in fact, acting against his wishes in order to act more like HVA agents… well, what do you think we could do with that knowledge?”
“Are you saying you think you know who Patrick’s case officer is?” Matt asked, perking up.
“That’s exactly what I’m saying.” Mr. Collins smiled mischievously.
“Well, you could have just said that!”
“But then you wouldn’t know how I know why.”
“Truth be told, I still don’t.” Matt replied glumly. “So, what does that mean, then? I mean, it’s certainly useful. But…”
“Okay, okay. Part two.” Mr. Collins said, bouncing in his seat. He was obviously gaining excitement as he was speaking, and this made Matt slightly nervous. “Let’s say you had something to gain by a series of actions. You would take those actions, right?”
“Of course.”
“In Game Theory, we have two types of games. The first is Zero-sum: that is, non-cooperative games where my opponent has to lose in order for me to gain. Think warfare over geography, or finite resources. But the second type is cooperative games, where the goal is to average out our potential gains so that even though I personally make less, we as the collegiate whole can produce more with the implied sum of our efforts, rather than the rote sum of our parts. On the international playing field, we accomplish this in three ways: dominance, reciprocity and culturalism.
“Dominance is explained by Russia and the GDR in the context of the Soviet bloc. The GDR is less powerful than Russia, thus, they have to take what Russia gives them whether they like it or not. To balk is to risk military action, and thus risk destabilizing equilibrium.
“In reciprocity, or ‘tit for tat’—generally between two reasonably equal powers—we all agree to compromises. This is where the US and Russia are, even though it doesn’t appear to be so, since we are still currently working out those geographical and economical compromises. The benefit is that everyone gets room to breathe. The detractor is that you have to give up space here, or resources there, and no one ever wants to do that.
“Enter in culturalism, where people factor in the identity of their country, and their individual moral values. What would their ‘God’ tell them to do, in order to remain an example of their religious institution, and thus sway others to their line of thinking? What manufacturing practices would we be willing to give up, in order to take the effects of global warming into account? What about maintaining the existence of a small native tribe of people who don’t contribute economically but do contribute culturally, especially in a historic context?
“In other words, if I can convince you, my opponent, that we can both identify as a cultural union… say, members of the now-defunct League of Nations, or the UN Defense council… maybe that inclusionary identity is worth more than merely identifying as a dominant nuclear superpower.”
“Alright… I’m following.” Matt said, scratching his head.
“You lie!” Mr. Collins teased. “Now, what would I have to do to harness culturalism, to get you to take an action that benefited all parties involved, even if it put you in a slightly worse-off position?”
“Explain the worth of it to me, I suppose.” Matt said. “But how would that be possible here? We have two ideologically opposed entities. US and the HVA hate each other—mostly because America and the GDR are politically opposed to each other.”
“First off…” Mr. Collins winked, “I don’t think we and the HVA hate each other that much. We may be on opposing teams, but we’re still in the intelligence community together. That makes us part of a single culture, even if we have opposing goals and methods. I know this because you were able to quickly facilitate a working relationship with both Patrick and Open-Wide.
“Second, you didn’t account for the HVA case officer, whom I strongly believe has a different cultural standpoint than that of his agents. He may work for the HVA, but he only utilizes its methods when he has to. He knows, based off of experience, that their tactics work well for the short-term game; whereas his tactics are far more sustainable, even when he receives resistance.”
“How do you know that?” Matt asked.
“Because Sunshine, Analog, Patrick, Grips, Open-Wide and the rest of our network are still alive.”
“Fair enough.”
“He also appears to support the GDR, but only appears to. His actions, if I’ve read them right, say that he probably believes in the community of socialism, rather than the GDR the community resides within. He probably believes that, if left to its own devices—and free of both the HVA and the Stasi— the socialist community would choose to thrive, and his GDR would be its own country, which as we both know is their main goal.
“He likely feels that the real opponent to the GDR is actually Soviet Russia, because the Soviet Bloc actually works against the GDR becoming its own country. He correctly sees that capitalism has its benefits, and that the various incarnations of socialism do too. But while he himself extols socialism for its benefits to the community, he reviles communism, seeing it part-and-parcel as intellectual and economic genocide. He views the Soviets as an equal threat to both America and the GDR. Thus, he’s willing to work on our behalf, so long as it works against his real enemy: the Soviets.
“I know this, once again, because Sunshine and all the others haven’t been summarily murdered, which would have cut nearly all of these games short. Instead, we took his bait—Sunshine—and his threat—Analog—and threw them right back across the wall as an obvious dangle. He has seemed to oblige us by not only keeping them alive, but— and would you believe this—scheduling another show with your band and hers.”
“Seriously?!” Matt yelled, slamming the table. “He really did?! You can’t be serious?!”
“Oh yes, Matt. He did. Like walking ransom notes. In truth, he likely feels that our network can actually benefit the socialist community of his country by working against the GDR’s Soviet taskmasters—provided he can control their information flow. Which is precisely what I would do, if I were in his position.” Then Mr. Collins assumed a sly grin as he continued, “That is, if I had received the same nonsense counter-intelligence that I’ve been sending him.”