"This just in, hot from NPIC."
The case officer pronounced the acronym "en-pick," and it stood for the National Photographic Interpretation Center in Washington, D.C.
"Thanks, Chris." John Stevens broke the seal reading top secret and opened the folder. Inside was a single black-and-white photograph identified only by the cryptic lines of transmission data and time/date stamp in the corner. The shot had been taken less than six hours ago. "Any change in course?"
"They've been zig-zagging all over the ocean,"
Chris Minkowski replied. "But they're not very good at it. They always keep coming back to the same heading."
Stevens studied the photograph. It had been enlarged quite a bit and showed some graininess, but the overall quality was exceptional — considering that it had been taken by a KH-12 satellite some 150 kilometers above the South China Sea. It showed a sharply angled view of the surface of the water, and a single vessel… the sleek and graceful lines of a large, oceangoing yacht. The view was from the stern starboard quarter, and the vessel's name, in English and Arabic, was easily read. al qahir.
"They see this yet over in OIA?" The Office of Imagery Analysis was responsible for creating assessments of photographic data provided by NPIC and other sources.
"Yup. They're still working on it." Minkowski tapped the white "V" of the vessel's wake. "They did say the wake shows they're humping it at a good twelve knots. That's pretty good for an eighty-foot yacht."
"Must be a souped-up job. If they're headed for Small Dragon Island, how long till they get there?"
Minkowski shrugged. "Depends how much more zig-zagging they do. At their present rate, three more days, maybe four."
Stevens leaned back in his chair, still studying the photograph as if to leach yet more information from its somber black, white, and gray tones. Al Qahir—the name meant "the conqueror" — was officially registered as the property of a wealthy oil sheik named Feisel living in Dhahran, but the agency had managed to peel back several layers of blind trusts and corporate shelters to identify the man who really owned her.
That man, a Saudi national named Sabawy, was a former associate of the bin Laden Corporation… and a close personal friend of Zaki Abar.
And Zaki Abar was high on the Agency's ten-most-wanted list of al Qaeda all-stars.
"So the question is… what the fuck is Sabawy doing in the Spratlys?"
"He's not. Intelligence puts Sabawy in Paris right now."
"Jesus! Then… "
Minkowski nodded. "They think Sabawy's good buddy Zaki is using the yacht for the summer. Kind of like your time-shared vacation getaway, y'know?"
"Huh. Are we talking about a snatch, here?" If Zaki was on board that yacht, it would be the perfect opportunity to send in a team and get him.
"Not until we know what he's doing in the Spratlys. Or how the Chinese might be involved."
"Do the Chinese even know he's there?"
"Hell, yes. What do you think? They've been following him on radar ever since last Tuesday."
"Doesn't mean they know who's on board."
"C'mon. A playboy toy would've been warned off long before this. They haven't even sent out one of their trawlers for a look-see. It's like they don't want to attract attention, y'know?"
"Yeah. That's what it looks like to me, too." Stevens thought hard.
The CIA's Office of Global Issues was responsible for analyzing international issues of all kinds — economic trends, geographic factors, commodities and trade, and technological developments. It was also the bureau responsible for such juicy and often interrelated issues as narcotics production and shipment, sales and shipments of restricted weapons and technology, political instability anywhere in the world… and international terrorism. Department emphasis on that last had skyrocketed since 9-11, and Stevens ran the unit that specialized in tracking key assets of al Qaeda — its money, its weapons, and its personnel.
OGI also had a special interest in the Spratly Islands. Located in the South China Sea, the Spratlys comprised some one hundred islands and atolls with a total land area of perhaps 5 square kilometers, scattered across 410,000 square kilometers of ocean. The highest point in the whole island chain was an unnamed point on Southwest Cay, some four meters above sea level at high tide.
The Spratlys might be insignificant geographically, but the mere possibility of natural reserves of gas and oil had transformed them into one of the world's hottest potential flash points. All of the islands were claimed by the People's Republic of China, by Vietnam, and by Taiwan — three mutual and deadly enemies. Some atolls and islets were also claimed by Malaysia and the Philippines. Tiny Brunei claimed an exclusive fishing zone encompassing Louisa Reef in the southern Spratlys, but so far had not publicly claimed the island. There was no native population, but China and the Philippines each had occupied a few of the larger islands with military garrisons.
For many years, the dispute had festered in various nations' capitals, but little had been done beyond the obligatory rattling of sabers. Most of the area remained unexplored, and the oil reserves, if they existed, remained undiscovered.
Recently, though, the People's Republic had upped the ante. Elements of their fleet had crisscrossed the Spratly zone, investigating dozens of the larger islets.
One — Small Dragon Island — had become the center of almost frantic activity.
American spy satellites had followed events from orbit. There'd been no natural harbors in any of the Spratlys, but the Chinese had constructed one, blasting it out of submerged coral rock. Part of the blasting had cut deep into the island itself, creating an anchorage which was then roofed over. A structure something like an offshore oil platform had gone up alongside, a three-story tower with windows and decks, and a helicopter pad connected to the main building by a causeway or ramp. The OIA thought it might be a base for prospecting for oil and gas. The OGI believed it was a sheltered anchorage for military ships, complete with a sheltered dock where weapons or other supplies might be offloaded in privacy, unseen by U.S. satellites.
Whatever the truth, Beijing had invested a lot of time, effort, and money in building the base at Small Dragon, enough to give them a very large stake indeed in the area. The base was particularly worrisome because of its location. Small Dragon was one of the easternmost of the Spratlys, positioned astride important international shipping lanes running southwest from the Philippines toward Singapore, a shipping chokepoint called the Palawan Passage. Much of the Spratlys' area was a treacherous maze of coral atolls and shoal water, deadly for all but the most shallow-draft vessels. Deeper-hulled craft — such as the oil tankers that kept Japan's faltering economy afloat— skirted the main body of the Spratlys and their dangerous reefs by running up the Palawan Passage, a deep-water channel that measured just a hundred kilometers from the shores of Palawan to tiny, strategic Small Dragon Island.
That much of the situation was worrisome enough to the analysts at OGI. But now there was evidence that one of the highest-ranking surviving officers of al Qaeda was heading for Small Dragon, and apparently taking steps to keep that visit secret.
"I think it's time," Stevens said at last, "to have a closer look at Small Dragon Island."
"I thought you'd feel that way," Minkowski replied.
Stevens reached for the phone on his desk.
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