As Komarov recorded these words, he noted the President tightening his jaw and clenching his right hand into a fist as if crushing his enemies. However, he also noted how the President avoided seeking reassurance from the others at the table, as that was a mark of weakness. He nodded at the Deputy President, saying nothing. Instead, he turned to the Foreign Minister, “Yevgeney Sergeyevich, have we succeeded in dividing our enemies abroad? If so, is now the time to exploit those divisions?”
The Foreign Minister was tall and gray-haired, with the look of a distinguished international diplomat. “Vladimir Vladimirovich, you have nothing to fear from the European Union. Yes, the sanctions regime has hurt us, but it hurt them, too. Besides, the mass migration crisis is well on the way to causing its collapse. So your efforts to undermine them, to divide them, particularly your bold decision to conduct air strikes in Syria, are having precisely the effect we anticipated.”
Komarov intervened. “Yevgeney Sergeyevich is right. Not only are Greece, Hungary and Cyprus in the bag, but we can also assume division in France. Our banks have been giving loans to Marine Le Pen’s party for some years. Now they will need to show sympathy, or we will demand immediate repayment of those debts.”
The Foreign Minister resumed, “Yes, and in Germany we can count on the willing fools who believe what they read about Russia in Spiegel. There are plenty of Germans who have a natural sympathy for us and see NATO as a dangerous aggressor.”
“We are all agreed then that NATO is an existential threat. But what about its capabilities?” asked the President.
“Therein lies the paradox, Vladimir Vladimirovich. Even as it expands eastward, NATO is like a marshmallow: soft at the center. It talks and talks about the principle of collective defense. However, while we are increasing defense spending, NATO nations can only promise to try and raise spending to the agreed NATO levels within ten years. I do not for a moment believe that Britain, France or Germany will risk the lives of their soldiers to defend NATO’s eastern member states. Their electorates will simply not allow it. Yes, the Alliance has a minimal presence in the Baltic states, but it shows no sign of wanting to antagonize us by establishing anything permanent.
“However, while the Alliance is weak, the bottom line is that NATO could, in time, pose a real and present danger to Russia. And just as worrying, the Baltic states could offer them a convenient launch pad for an attack on us. Right now though, NATO does not possess the physical capability to counter anything we might do. Almost as important, it also lacks the political and moral will to do so. While that is true of its leaders today, it might not be the case tomorrow.”
The President stared at the far wall before speaking again. “I agree that Britain, France and Germany will do nothing. And Britain has become an international irrelevance.” The President at last gave a caustic smile. “So, those countries don’t count. But what about America?”
“Still the strongest military power on the globe. However, since the Obama presidency, they show no appetite to re-engage in Europe. We have no need to fear the few tanks they have placed in storage across Eastern Europe, from Estonia to Bulgaria. They are only for show. Without crews, ammunition, spare parts and maintenance teams they are so much useless metal.”
The President held up his hand for silence. “Are we making the mistake of underestimating them? After all, what about last year’s exercise in Poland, just before the NATO Summit? What could be more aggressive than deploying over twenty-five thousand troops as a show of force so close to our borders?” He shifted in his chair and then added, “You may be right about NATO’s present weakness, but I see mortal danger to Russia from America one day… and that means mortal danger to all of us.” He looked meaningfully around the small group of men who were his inner circle. “My first duty is to defend Russia by preventing NATO encirclement. And the way to do that is to seize eastern Ukraine and the Baltic states.”
The Foreign Minister thought before answering. “I accept that this deployment was a display of aggression against Russia. But it is still early days for the new president. We think that while they are talking big, they do not have the will or the mandate to engage overseas.”
Komarov looked at the President. “That opinion is reinforced by the latest FSB report.”
“So I saw… but I repeat, beware of underestimating the Americans.”
Next the President turned to the Chief of the General Staff, his principal military adviser, rather than to the ludicrously bemedaled Defense Minister who sat alongside him. “Are Russia’s armed forces ready, Mikhail Nikolayevich?”
“Without question, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” the soldier replied.
As ever, Komarov noted how out of place he looked at this meeting. He was an ethnic Tatar from Kazan who, unusually for a Tatar, sat at the head of the Russian Armed Forces. Steady eyes, high cheekbones, dark greying hair, a man hardened in combat in Chechnya. He was the holder of the Military Order of Valor First Class, and a man who looked younger than his fifty-nine years.
“Our forces are ready to finish this business in Ukraine. At your command we are ready to move into the Baltic states. Our recent snap exercises have ensured that the Baltic and Northern Fleets are prepared for war, as are our air and ground forces. Our nuclear forces are on high alert and all five strategic submarines of the Northern Fleet are at sea with full complements of submarine-launched nuclear missiles. We have just reinforced Kaliningrad with nuclear-armed Iskander missiles. Once the final logistic outload is completed we will be ready for war.”
The President nodded and considered his options. Then he spoke, looking around the table as he did so. “I understand your concerns about the increasingly difficult economic position, but we have an opportunity to seize the initiative here, to secure the eastern provinces of Ukraine and incorporate them as Novorossiya—New Russia—within the Russian Federation. To that end, I believe that the presence of American and British trainers in Ukraine indicates a clear and present threat to Russia and is more evidence of NATO aggression.”
The Finance Minister raised a hand. “If I may, Vladimir Vladimirovich…” He faltered.
The President did not like being interrupted. “What is it?” he said, with some irritation.
The Finance Minister seemed nervous. “Please forgive me for saying this, but I must put on record my concern that any increased risk of hostilities with NATO will send the ruble into free fall and put the economy under even greater pressure than it is at present.”
“That’s enough, Boris Mikhailovich,” the President cut him off. “You had your say. My decision is to strike now, while we have the opportunity. Once we have Ukraine’s Donbas region, we will have secured a manufacturing area of critical importance to our economy. NATO will be hopelessly divided as to what action it should take and may well start unraveling as we apply ever greater pressure and the nations argue among themselves. We will take more US and UK trainers as hostages and that will further divide them. What we leave of Ukraine will be a defenseless rump under our control. Russia will once again be pre-eminent. And…,” the President now glared at the Finance Minister, “with all this going on the world will take fright. Gold prices will soar and oil prices should go through the roof. That’s exactly what you say our economy needs. Isn’t it?”
The Finance Minister nodded.
The President turned to the Defense Minister. “Alexandr Borisovich, I want to be briefed in detail on the plan for breaking the ceasefire tomorrow morning.”