“And the answer to my second question? What about the brigade the Americans have stationed across Eastern Europe on a rotational basis? I recall being briefed that this year we can expect a second brigade’s worth of vehicles? And, of course, Prime Minister Spencer of the UK surprised us a couple of years ago by committing Britain to two percent of GDP spent on defense. Has that made a difference?”
“With respect, Vladimir Vladimirovich, while you are correct on both counts, the FSB’s assessment is that these are both little more than political posturing. At present. A timely headline in their newspapers and no more. While the Americans have a brigade spread from Estonia to Bulgaria, that hardly counts as a military capability. Only when the brigade is assembled together, and properly trained with the nations it is to operate alongside, can it possibly become effective. And that has not happened. Nor can it happen in less than a week and we will have achieved our objectives well within that timeframe. As for the second brigade’s worth of vehicles kept in storage, that is hardly relevant. Only when the vehicles are fully crewed and it, too, is concentrated will it be an effective force. So while NATO can do little at present, there remains the danger of a continued build-up of forces by the West, which could well threaten us in time.”
“And the British?”
“Good fighters and still, for their size, the most capable armed forces in Europe, even if some of their generals are keener to tell their politicians what they want to hear than command as soldiers. Nevertheless, man for man, they are still a match for anyone in the world.”
General Gareyev nodded his agreement.
Komarov saw the President’s momentary flash of irritation at the acknowledgment of the fighting qualities of the British, quickly subside at the criticism of British generalship.
Merkulov continued. “Extra spending? It is all show. More headlines. The British government is playing political smoke and mirrors with its defense budget by now including not only the costs of the intelligence agencies, but also civil service pensions, to get them over the two percent of GDP line. The military spending cuts of the past decade will take years to put right and would cost much, much more than they plan to spend. After all, Vladimir Vladimirovich, it is costing us a forty-per-cent annual increase in defense spending just to start putting right the neglect of those traitors Gorbachev and Yeltsin.”
“What are their vulnerabilities, Lavrentiy Pavlovich?” persisted the President.
“The list is long and responsibility for much of it lies with Defense Secretary Everage. He made millions in the processed-meat business. But knowing how to make a margin on sausages does not necessarily give you any understanding of geostrategy or war. How could it? That requires people with a sense of history and experience of war.” Merkulov allowed himself the hint of a smile.
The President nodded for him to continue, clearly enjoying the insult.
“What is more, he is at loggerheads with many of his senior military, because he succeeded magnificently in his cost-cutting task. He slashed their regular army manpower by nearly twenty percent and said he would replace them with reserves. His generals told him they could never be adequately recruited or trained and he ignored them. The generals turned out to be right. Only a man focused on saving money at almost any cost, and with no understanding of the strategic consequences, would have taken such a risky gamble.” Merkulov paused, unsure what level of detail the President wanted him to go into.
But Komarov knew the President was loving this.
“Go on.”
“Their Prime Minister needed to save money quickly to reduce the deficit and he appointed this businessman to do it. He did as he was asked and certainly, their Prime Minister thinks he was a success. But now they are about to receive their dividend: bad decisions, taken in haste, for which they will pay the blood price.”
“And the money price,” the President interjected.
“That is the true genius of your plan, Vladimir Vladimirovich. NATO and the West will think this is all about protecting Russian speakers, but it is also about the balance of power in Europe. When NATO fails to react to our seizure of the Baltic states it will have failed, been defeated, and probably collapse. At that moment it will cease to pose a threat to Russia. Without NATO, Europe will be forced to beg us not to go any further. And apart from eastern Poland, which has historically been part of Russia, we probably won’t. We’d all be happy to visit Paris as a tourist. But there will be a price to pay for our forbearance. We will demand that these criminal sanctions are lifted immediately, and with our victorious armies on their borders and our nuclear missiles pointed at them, will they refuse? I think not.
“The G7 will become the G8 once again and Russia will again be a leading player. Will the International Monetary Fund dare not grant us soft loans? I doubt it. And here’s an amusing thought one of my staffers came up with. As we will once again own the Baltics and all three are members of the European Union, surely that will make us members of the EU? With three votes even…”
There were loud guffaws of laughter from the others at the joke but, behind his wintry smile, Komarov could see that Merkulov was deadly serious.
He waited for the conversation to die down before continuing. “Because Russia has always been part of Europe and as EU members, we would be entitled to receive massive EU Structural and Investment Funds. Refuse and they will risk our missiles. And there will be no NATO to resist us.”
The President gave a tight smile. “Boris Mikhailovich, our much-esteemed but always very concerned Finance Minister, will be delighted to learn this. But then again,” he shrugged, “I feel sure he will find something to worry about.”
“That is why businessmen and accountants should not be allowed anywhere near the business of war,” Merkulov replied.
“Exactly.” The President nodded. “Now, tell me more about the problems the British face.”
Komarov knew how the President enjoyed being told in front of his generals how short-sighted and foolish his enemies were. Not only did it reassure the President that his plans would work, but it also let the generals know how lucky they were to have him as their commander-in-chief. Two birds knocked from the sky with one stone, as the British would say.
“As for their once-formidable navy, they have yet to replace the escort ships they scrapped, while the aircraft carriers they built have no aircraft to fly off them. Nor, despite the decision to procure them in 2015, will they have any anti-submarine, maritime patrol aircraft for at least another two years. Quite unbelievable for an island nation. You would think they would understand the sea, as we understand the land. But this British government? Apparently not.
“And as for their once-famous army? Our assessment is that they are now so weak that the deployment of a brigade, let alone a division, would be a major challenge. Indeed, when they deployed a small armored battlegroup to Poland to take part in a flagship NATO exercise last November, our agents in the UK were picking up unconfirmed rumors that they were talking about bringing tanks over from their training fleet in Canada, because the serviceability and spares situation in their UK tank fleet was so dire.”