Several people have insisted that it was indeed the counsel of Rasputin that kept Nicholas from going to war. Anna Vyrubova, his most devoted disciple after the empress, later wrote: 'I remember only one incident when Grigory Efimovich truly exercised influence on Russia's foreign policy. It was in 1912, when Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaevich, grandson of Tsar Nicholas I, a cousin of the Emperor, and husband of Anastasia, daughter of the king of Montenegro, tried to talk the Emperor into taking part in the Balkan war. Rasputin practically got on his knees before the Emperor and begged him not to do this, saying that Russia's enemies are waiting for nothing but Russia getting involved in this war, which will lead to inescapable misfortune for Russia.'16
Count Sergei Witte, the former prime minister, concurred, noting that Rasputin 'spoke decisive words at the time of the Balkans War. One must consider him therefore a fact oflife.'17 Witte was even quoted on the matter by the German Vossische Zeitung on 5 May (18 May New Style) 1914: 'The entire world disparages Rasputin, but did you know that Rasputin saved us from war?'18
Convinced of Rasputin's power at court, the German press was keen to divine his opinion on war in the Balkans. The Frankfurter Zeitung ran a story titled 'Russia and the Balkans', claiming that Rasputin had been heard to say that 'the Bulgarians have repaid the Russians for their love with ingratitude and hate, and so we must now think of ourselves and not take care of matters for these unworthy people'.19
Rasputin had travelled through the Balkans on his way to the Holy Land in 1911. What he saw did not please him.
'But perhaps the Slavs are not right, perhaps they are being put to some sort of trial?! Look, you don't know them,' he told the press, 'they are haughtier than the Turks and they hate us. I journeyed to Jerusalem, I've been to old Mount Athos - there's great sin there due to the Greeks and they don't live properly, not as monks should. And the Bulgarians are even worse. How they made fun of us Russians when they brought us there. They're a bitter people, their hearts are hard. The Turks, on the other hand, are more religious, more polite and peaceful. But if you look in the newspapers you'd think just the opposite. But I'm telling you the absolute truth.'20
With this Rasputin went well beyond simply announcing his opposition to pan-Slavism, daring to state at a moment of heightened xenophobia that Muslims were actually more truly religious than the Russians' Slavic brothers.
While Rasputin's position against the war is beyond doubt, the effect he had on Nicholas's decision is less clear. There is no record to suggest that Nicholas even listened to Rasputin's views at the time. Moreover, Rasputin was not alone in speaking out against getting dragged into the Balkans. Foreign minister Sergei Sazonov, having done much to embolden the Balkan nations and so make the war possible, was against involvement, and so, too, was Nicholas himself. He had told his ambassador to Sofia at the beginning of 1911 never to forget for a moment that Russia could not go to war for at least another five years. The mere thought of it was out of the question.21
Nicholas's words show that he and Rasputin approached the problem from somewhat different perspectives. For the emperor, war itself was not wrong, and Russia, so he suggests, would possibly go to war, but not until the country was fully prepared. For Rasputin, the matter was a bit more complicated. On one hand he suggested war was inherently wrong for a Christian, although his damning comments about the Bulgarians (and by extension other Slavs) implied that war might be a necessary evil, but only if fought for true friends.
A year after the outbreak of the war against Turkey, during which the allied Balkan states had ended up turning against each other, a vindicated Rasputin expressed his views publicly on the pages of the Petersburg Gazette on 13 October 1913.
What have our 'dear little brothers', about whom writers screamed so loudly that we must defend them, shown us? ... We have seen the deeds of our dear little brothers and now we understand ... Everything [...]
So there was a war in those Balkans. And all the writers began to scream in the newspapers: let there be war, let there be war! And, it seems, we, too, must then fight . And they called us all to war and stoked the fire ... And so I would ask them [...] I would ask the writers: 'Dear Sirs! Exactly why are you doing this? Is this really the right thing? One must calm the passions if there is some discord, for then there will be true war, and not stoke discord and hatred. [...]
We should do away with the fear and discord of war and not encourage discord and hostility. We Russians should avoid conflict and build a monument to peace - a real monument I say - to those who work for peace. A peaceful policy against war should be considered lofty and wise.22
In the days before Guseva's attack Vyrubova telegraphed Rasputin while en route to Pokrovskoe to keep him abreast of the opinions of Nicholas and Alexandra on the international crisis.23 After the attack Rasputin tried to follow the unfolding events from his hospital bed in Tyumen and to offer his advice to the emperor. The reporters there sought out his opinion about the ever-graver situation in the Balkans.24 According to his daughter Matryona, Rasputin was beside himself with worry during those days that Nicholas would go to war. He supposedly said as he lay recovering: 'I'm coming, I'm coming, and don't try to stop me. [...] Oh, Lord, what have they done? Mother Russia will perish!'25 Rasputin wrote to Nicholas telling him to 'stay strong' and not heed the voices calling for war. Such was his worry that his wound opened up and began to bleed again.26
On 12 July (25 July New Style), Rasputin wired to Vyrubova: 'A serious moment, there's a threat of war.'27 The next day he cabled again, urging her to tell the tsar to avoid war at any cost.28 On the following day, 14 July, he received an unsigned telegram from Peterhof most likely from Vyrubova, asking him to change his mind and support the calls for war: 'You are aware that our eternal enemy Austria is preparing to attack little Serbia. That country is almost entirely made up of peasants, utterly devoted to Russia. We shall be covered in infamy should we permit this shameless violence/reprisal. If the occasion arises, use your influence to support this just cause. Get well soon.'29
More pleading telegrams followed:
July 1914. From Peterhof to Tyumen. Rasputin.
Bad news. Terrible moments. Pray for him. No more strength to fight the others.
July 1914. From Peterhof to Tyumen. Rasputin.
The clouds threaten ever more. For our defence we must openly prepare ourselves, suffering terribly.
From Petersburg to Rasputin's secretary Lapshinskaya. Should the health of the starets allow, immediate arrival is necessary to help Papa in light of imminent events, his loving friends advise and fervently request. Kisses. Awaiting your answer.30
But Rasputin did not follow Vyrubova's advice and stuck to his position. He sent the emperor a telegram urging him not to go to war. The telegram has been lost, but Vyrubova, who claimed to have seen it, said it read: 'Let Papa not plan for war, for war will mean the end of Russia and yourselves, and you will lose to the last man.' Nicholas was reportedly furious at the telegram, resentful at Rasputin's interference in affairs of state that, as he saw it, did not concern him.31