Both documents were produced on a weekly basis by the U.S. Intelligence Board made up of the director of Central Intelligence and the heads of the other intelligence agencies, including the National Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, the military intelligence branches, the State Department, FBI, Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Treasury Department. The National Intelligence Estimate listed targets for the U.S. intelligence community, estimates of future international events and enemy strengths, a technical intelligence review and decisions on which product was to be shared with which allies. A separate document, the Watch Report, indicated trouble spots where armed conflict was possible or even likely. The two reports were issued each Thursday, after the USIB meeting at the CIA, and were delivered to the President and all the top policymakers in the government.
“Okay, I’ll wade through this stuff this afternoon, unless there’s something that needs our attention right now.”
“It’ll wait,” Adkins said. He passed two more thick files to McGarvey both marked Top Secret. “These are the suggested current updates to the National Intelligence Estimate and Watch Reports on the Sea of Japan situation, which for the moment we’ve code named Watchful Thunder. I’m told that you know some of this, but if you’ll give me a couple of minutes I’ll give you a précis of everything we have so far.” The room lights dimmed and a satellite image of what appeared to be a major seaside industrial installation appeared on the monitor.
“This photograph was taken by one of our KeyHole satellites, six days ago,” Adkins said. “It’s the partially dismantled nuclear-powered electrical generating plant at Kimch’aek on North Korea’s east coast. It’s hard to tell from this shot, but NRO and NSA analysts reported seeing a good deal of activity here during the past week. Apparently the North Koreans were moving something out of the facility in great secrecy. It’s now believed that the object of all this activity was the removal of four of their five operational-ready nuclear devices. Over the next several days heavy cloud cover in the region rendered our photographic capabilities useless.”
Another satellite image came up on the screen, this one showing a huge depression in the ground. Nothing of the power plant, its cooling towers, twin reactor containment domes or the distribution yards was left. “Seventy-two hours ago we recorded an underground nuclear event in the range of twenty kilotons directly beneath the installation, which, as you can see, was totally destroyed. The actual event was witnessed by one of our nuclear patrol submarines, the Seawolf which had detected the presence of a Japanese submarine just off shore. It’s believed that this submarine, the Hayshio, home ported at Sasebo, may have sent a party of commandos ashore either to gather intelligence on the nuclear weapons stockpile, or to commit an act of sabotage. The shore party did not return to the Hayshio, which was apparently heavily damaged in the explosion. Twelve hours later, in response to a Mayday, an MSDF rescue vessel showed up and recovered the submarine’s crew.” Adkins looked up. “This was without interference from the North Koreans and apparently without detection of the Seawolf, which has been ordered to stand by and monitor the situation.”
A series of four images came up one after the other. “Since then a number of interesting developments have occurred. The Chinese navy has deployed eight warships, two of them Han class nuclear attack submarines, from their Northern Fleet bases at Qingdao, Lushun and Xiaopingdao. Best estimates place them off North Korea’s coast no later than Friday or Saturday.”
Another series of satellite images flashed across the screen. “These are Japanese military installations across the three main islands, among them air force regional headquarters bases at Misawa, Iruma and Kasuga, as well as navy bases at Yokosuka, Kure, Sasebo, Maisura and Oominato. All of them have gone to a high state of alert without the proper notification to our command structure either in Japan or at the Pentagon. In addition, the MSDF has begun to deploy a number of warships into the area.” Adkins looked at McGarvey. “The actual details are listed in the NIE update, but the situation is extremely fluid at the moment so we’re getting new information hourly.”
“Has the President deployed the Seventh Fleet?” McGarvey asked.
“Yes. They should be in striking range about the same time the Chinese fleet shows up,” Adkins said. “Maybe sooner.”
Brenda Jordan, an earnest-looking woman in her late thirties with flaming red hair, had slipped in and quietly taken her place. She’d brought the Operational Services division files with her.
“Okay, what do we have on the ground at Kimch’aek?” McGarvey asked.
“Not a thing, sir,” Jordan said. “The South Koreans sent one unit up there but they lost contact, so they’re sending another, although they’re not sharing any of the operational details with us.”
“We do have confirmation that there was probably a considerable loss of life in the incident,” Whittaker said. “Pyongyang is saying that it was an accident brought on because we forced them to cut corners in closing the facility. Which of course nobody believes.”
“Is such an accident possible?”
“A meltdown, yes,” Kraus said. “But not an explosion of that magnitude. It was definitely a nuclear device.”
“Have the North Koreans made any military response yet?” McGarvey asked. “Other than calling for help from the Chinese?”
“None, at this point. But all of their military installations are always at a high state of readiness,” Adkins said.
“Has Seoul or Tokyo made statements?” McGarvey asked. The more he was hearing the more the situation became surreal to him. It was as if everyone out there had suddenly gone crazy.
“Kim Jong-Il is warning that if he is pushed too far he’ll strike back. So the South Koreans brought out Hwang Jang Yop, who says that North Korea is getting ready to launch an all-out nuclear attack on Seoul and Tokyo. Scorched earth, he said. Prime Minister Enchi responded that if Kim Jong-Il so much as twitches they’ll mount an all-out offensive against North Korea. Secretary of State Carter is on his way to Tokyo to see if he can talk some sense into them, and the President has scheduled a news conference for two this afternoon.”
“What else?”
Adkins glanced at the others. “That’s about it, except for the details which you have in front on you. The question is what the hell does the CIA do about it?”
“Nothing other than what we’re already doing, only more of it,” McGarvey said. “This is going to have to be worked out politically, because nobody wants to start a shooting war over there. So we have to provide the White House with everything they need. And I don’t mean by that another series of Howard Ryan reports. Only the facts. Right now what we’re short of is human intelligence. I want our chiefs of Seoul and Tokyo stations to lean hard on all of their networks, active or not, to find out what the hell is really happening, and who is directing it.”
“That could ruin a lot of assets,” Whittaker warned.
“I don’t care. We’ll bring them in if need be once they’re blown, but as of this moment this operation is our number-one priority.”
“There is one other operation,” Adkins said. “The general asked me to put something together, but perhaps we don’t need to bring it up here.”